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Sunday, July 20, 2008

Tropical Storm Dolly


SOURCE: NOAA, NWS (Note: I'm on the Emergency Management Team for South Padre Island. This is our latest update. ~MZ)

Tropical Storm Dolly has formed in the Northwestern Caribbean. Initial intensity is 45 mph. Initial movement is northwest at 17 mph.

The current forecast will bring Dolly across the Yucatan peninsula tonight and into the southern Gulf of Mexico during the day Monday. Dolly is forecast to make landfall near or a little to the south of Brownsville as a strong Tropical Storm (59 to 74 mph ) late Thursday afternoon. The forecast intensity keeps Dolly a Tropical Storm through landfall although it is possible she could make Category 1 strength. There is a good possibility Dolly's movement will slow before landfall and there is a great deal of uncertainty with both the timing and intensity of Dolly beyond 48 hours.

Sustained winds - The radius of tropical storm force winds is 175 miles from the center. This will bring tropical storm force winds from well south of Matamoros to Kenedy County over the course of the storm. Winds of 35 mph will reach land areas late Tuesday and increase through the night and day on Wednesday. Sustained winds in excess of 50 mph with higher gusts are likely across the most populated areas of the Lower Rio Grande Valley along and south of US77/83 beginning Wednesday evening and into Thursday. Winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts will reach the outer edge of the coastal waters (60 miles offshore) Tuesday night and increase through the day Wednesday and into Thursday.

Rainfall - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms beginning Tuesday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated totals over 8 inches are expected over the Lower Rio Grande Valley through Thursday. Heaviest rains will be in the populated areas of the valley along and south off US77/83 on Wednesday into Thursday. Higher totals are possible if Dolly slows more than forecast. Beyond Thursday rainfall amounts will depend on the track of the remnants of the storm which is uncertain at this time.

Waves and Seas - Open ocean seas will begin to increase to 3 to 5 feet on Monday reaching 10 feet and higher by Wednesday. Breaking waves near shore will be 6 to 8 feet or higher on Wednesday...10 feet or higher at the jetties and breakwaters. Some beach erosion is possible and rip current risk will be high. A Coastal Flood Watch is likely.

Please see the graphic forecasts for details at your particular location at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphical/sectors/bro.php
and the Point-and-Click forecasts at
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bro/

Storm and track information are available at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/tropical.php

5 Comments:

Anonymous thezipper said...

Oh great ...... even more mosquitos. Oh well.....anyone for a hurricane party???

Sunday, July 20, 2008  
Blogger Melissa Zamora said...

ohhhhhhhhh ... that sounds fun ... oh well, I'll be working.

Sunday, July 20, 2008  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not a Hurricane Party - a SPITS party - South Padre Island Tropical Storm Party! - the ideas are endless.

Sunday, July 20, 2008  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dolly may be the key to the Border Wall issue - I see construction delays in the future!

Just enough rain to make it muddy!

Hello Dolly!

Monday, July 21, 2008  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Amen! Hold up that wall - indefinitely!!!!

Monday, July 21, 2008  

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